Chrysler: Still Holding

When the current Chrysler 300 debuted back in 2006, it was nothing short of revolutionary. Well, maybe a little short. But with gas prices relatively low, bringing back rear-wheel drive to the American mainstream looked like a great way to get ahead of the competition. And it worked — for a while.

The 300, and then the Dodge Magnum and Dodge Charger, set Chrysler apart from any other automaker and seemed poised to usher in a new era of success for the littlest of the Big Three. Alas, the global meltdown of the auto industry, combined with a new focus on fuel efficiency in this country, threw ye olde monkey wrench into the works.

The Chrysler product pipeline, to a much greater degree than that of Ford and General Motors, came to a screeching halt, and only now is it slowly gearing up again.

The first fruits of the new Chrysler, refreshed versions of the 300 and the Charger, will finally be coming our way next year, and it's not a moment too soon. The real question is: Will it be a moment too late?

Well, let's put on the old spin machine and take a close look at the November numbers, which tell a surprising tale.

There's no getting around the fact that Chrysler sales stunk in November. Overall numbers were down 25 percent, by far the worst of any mainstream automaker. But the fact that the company still sold 63,560 vehicles is an amazing testament to the loyalty of Dodge and Chrysler customers. From that starting point, and considering how much Chrysler has shrunk its business, it isn't going to take that many more buyers to put the company on a stable footing.

It's just a question of getting by in the months/years before the new Fiat-approved products start coming online.

With customers continuing to look for alternatives to full-size SUVs and pickups, I'm thinking the full-size sedan segment will get at least some of the overflow and see at least some growth next year. But right now, the segment is essentially the Chevrolet Impala and everybody else, with the big Chevy notching 12,375 sales in November, up 10 percent over the same time last year.

The new Ford Taurus has been getting plenty of hype, but earned "just" 4,669 sales last month. In fact, Ford's new full-size products — the Taurus and Lincoln MKS — combined to outsell the 300 and the Charger by just 773 units in November. As for other competitors, well, the newish Nissan Maxima is doing nicely, but in this context "nicely" equates to just under 5,000 sales.

In other words, there's a pretty big window of opportunity for Chrysler in the full-size sedan market, especially when you consider that the next-generation Impala won't be introduced until after the new 300/Charger and will remain front-wheel drive.

The Dodge Journey also seems to have found a sweet spot among mid-size crossovers and has accomplished a truly astounding feat: It has already surpassed its 2008 sales mark with a month still to go in the year. Again, it's an example of Chrysler's success in an important segment that's likely to keep growing in 2010.

And the same can be said of the company's minivans. The combined sales of the Dodge Caravan and Chrysler Town & Country are essentially double those of the next nearest competitor. I won't go into my usual spiel here about the minivan segment being ready for a rebirth, but my feelings certainly haven't changed any.

Chrysler also has two other notable advantages. In many ways, neither the Jeep brand nor the new Dodge Challenger have much in the way of competition, albeit for different reasons.

With HUMMER apparently unlikely to get its act together, Jeep is THE off-road brand in the U.S. market. Yes, it's a shrinking segment, and yes, Jeep will feature a shrinking lineup, but seeing 200,000 sales in 2010 isn't out of the realm of possibility. The division has been good for nearly 211,000 sales this year, and will continue to offer stalwart sellers like the Jeep Wrangler, with an all-new Jeep Grand Cherokee expected for 2011.

The Dodge Challenger is currently in third place in the American muscle-car sweepstakes, behind the reborn Chevrolet Camaro and an updated Ford Mustang, and that's not likely to change. But this is another segment built substantially on past loyalties. I mean, I don't think many Dodge fanboys will be cross-shopping the Camaro or Mustang, so there's a bit of a built-in customer base. Plus, the Challenger also has been earning praise in terms of buyer satisfaction, which is a proven buzz builder.

On the other hand, Chrysler remains well behind the competition in what's perhaps the most important segment in the U.S.: mid-size sedans. The much-maligned Chrysler Sebring and Dodge Avenger remain well off the pace of cars like the Ford Fusion, Chevrolet Malibu and Toyota Camry, with their replacements years away.

Yet, on the other other hand, Sebring sales were up 5 percent in November, with Avenger numbers making a 51 percent leap. And if these kinds of cars can still turn in those kinds of positive results, maybe Chrysler can stay afloat until the Italian connection starts delivering new products.